In part one of this series, we covered the reasons why Canadian policymakers have become so reliant on immigration. Part two explored the economic effects of increased immigration and the concept of “Canada’s Population Trap,” as described in a recent special report from the National Bank of Canada. In our third and final part of this series, we will examine what changes have and likely will occur in Canada’s immigration system going forward.
The first alteration to Canada’s recent population growth strategy was made in January of 2024 when Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced that the federal government would cap the number of student permits over the next two years. Amid concerns about an increasingly competitive housing market, the government said it would approve approximately 360,000 undergraduate study permits for 2024—a 35% reduction from 2023.
Canada’s smallest province, PEI, was the first province to announce a change to their immigration strategy. In May of 2024, PEI announced it would be cutting the number of people the province nominates for permanent residency by 25% in 2024. This change is part of the province’s new population strategy that aims to ease a strained healthcare system and housing market.
Quebec was the next province to make changes to its immigration program. On August 20, 2024, the Government of Canada announced the approval of a proposal by the Government of Quebec for a temporary freeze on the approval of new Temporary Foreign Workers (TFW) in the low-wage stream in Montreal. (The “low-wage stream” refers to workers who are paid less than the median hourly wage of their province or territory.)
We are now seeing similar changes at the federal level with Randy Boissonnault, Federal Minister of Employment & Workforce Development, informing businesses that the Government of Canada is reducing access to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. Effective September 26, 2024:
- The Government of Canada will refuse to process Labour Market Impact Assessments in the Low-Wage stream in census metropolitan areas with an unemployment rate of 6% or higher.
- Employers will be allowed to hire no more than 10% of their total workforce through the TFW Program. This maximum employment percentage will be applied to the Low-Wage stream and is a further reduction from the March 2024 reduction.
- The maximum duration of employment for workers hired through the Low-Wage stream will be reduced from two years to one year.
Exceptions to the above restrictions will be granted for seasonal and non-seasonal jobs in food security sectors as well as construction and healthcare.
Based on these recent announcements, it appears that the focus remains on “targeted immigration” of workers in construction, healthcare, and agriculture, while employers looking to fill gaps in low-wage stream jobs will likely have a harder time.
Canada’s immigration strategy will likely continue to be tweaked into 2025 as the Federal and Provincial Governments continue to try to find a balance between labour shortages and infrastructure demands. Going forward, we can expect to see universities, the food and accommodation sector, and other service-based industries impacted by these changes.
Having a balanced discussion about a sensitive issue like immigration can be hard; it’s important to remain open to the discussion of the scale of immigration without being anti-immigrant. Increased numbers of newcomers can easily become a scapegoat for genuine economic concerns related to housing, healthcare, and food production, but immigration will also play a crucial role in addressing those concerns.
For now, the Halifax Chamber of Commerce will continue to advocate for targeted immigration streams, ensuring that policymakers are balancing the needs of businesses with the necessary infrastructure investments needed to support sustainable economic growth.
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