Chief Economist Ian Munro breaks down the 2026 Halifax Index
Last month, Halifax Partnership launched the fifteenth annual Halifax Index presented by TD. As the arrival of summer provides an opportunity, I hope, for everyone to pause and reflect on the past and contemplate the future, let me share a few highlights and observations from this year’s edition.
In broad macroeconomic terms, perhaps the best summary is to say that things look … better than expected!
A year ago, we were still in a state of shock from the Trumpian tariff tirades aimed at Canada and feeling significant angst about where our economy might be headed. Now we have become better at differentiating bluster from action. The last year has seen its share of chaos, concerns, and complications, but to date, we have avoided calamity.
Halifax’s real GDP grew by 2.3% in 2025, and the increase in our real GDP per capita of 1.2% was tops among the Index’s set of benchmark cities. The population continued to rise, but not at the record pace of 2022-24 that generated growing pains in areas such as housing and transportation. The labour force expanded as well, but unemployment remained low by historical standards. Inflation was modest and a far cry from the spikes experienced as we emerged from the pandemic.
Halifax Partnership’s annual Business Confidence Survey, conducted by Narrative Research, gathers views from business owners on Halifax’s economy. Our Business Confidence Index, derived from that survey, rose in 2026 after three consecutive years of decline.
Productivity and growth challenges were major topics of discussion in 2025, as exemplified by the Halifax Partnership Productivity Puzzle series of events and discussion papers. It is good to see awareness and understanding of these issues expanding, but work remains to be done on the underlying fundamentals. Nova Scotia continues to lag on capital investment statistics, and our annual survey of Halifax businesses showed lowered intentions to engage in a range of productivity-enhancing activities in 2026. Assessment results for Halifax P-12 students in reading, writing, and mathematics continue to be cause for concern.
This year’s Index also highlights the importance of fiscal discipline and sustainability as governments make difficult decisions about how best to spend taxpayers’ dollars on the infrastructure and services needed now and for the future. Nova Scotia’s net debt-to-GDP ratio is forecasted to rise from 35.0% in 2025-26 to 45.4% by 2029-30, which would be its highest level since 2000-01. Halifax Regional Municipality is also increasing expenditures, with overall spending projected to rise by 8.4% in 2026-27 after a 7.1% increase the year before. Although HRM’s outstanding debt balance and debt service costs declined from 2024-25 to 2025-26, both are expected to rise significantly by 2027-28. Together, these trends reinforce the need to grow municipal and provincial tax bases.
Let me end, though, on another piece of good news from the Index. Housing issues have been front of mind in Halifax in recent years. While, unsurprisingly, real estate costs did rise again in 2025, apartment vacancy rates continued to ease, housing starts hit a new record high, and the number of housing units under construction jumped to almost 14,000 – enough to house approximately 30,000 people. This construction boom will continue to alleviate affordability pressures.
To seize the opportunities ahead and respond effectively to the challenges facing our city, we need a shared understanding of where we stand today and the outlook for the future. The 2026 Halifax Index provides that evidence base, offering data and insights to inform decision-making, strategies, and policies.
Explore the full 2026 Halifax Index at:
